The UK has announced a further £450 million of military support for Ukraine after Kyiv claimed that Russia’s much-anticipated “spring offensive” has already begun.
Moscow is increasing its attacks around the border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, said Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrsky, and this renewed fighting could have a significant influence on the outcome of the war.
Analysts, including the UK’s Ministry of Defence, said that Russia’s “rate of advance” has been “in steady decline” over the “challenging” winter months. It has gone down from about 730 square kilometres captured in November to just 143 in March, said CNN.
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But the arrival of spring can make it easier to advance because the ground hardens, so armoured vehicles and soldiers can move more easily.
Moscow’s latest attacks on Sumy “might entail a real effort to occupy the area”, said The Economist, or they might just be “a relentless series of attacks aimed at tying down Ukrainian troops and creating a buffer zone”.
It’s thought “these assaults” are “part of a spring offensive by Russia”, said the BBC, and Kyiv believes Moscow is “preparing for a major renewed assault”, with tens of thousands of troops thought to have “gathered along the border”.
Moving into the region of Dnipropetrovsk would be “a significant moment”, said CNN, because Russian troops haven’t yet “set foot there” so it would be the first new Ukrainian region to come under “part-Russian occupation” since the early weeks of the conflict. Putin could use the area as a “useful bargaining chip” in future negotiations.
Despite the “downbeat assessments”, it’s “important to keep some perspective” because the amount of territory Russia is capturing “remains small”. But Putin’s recent conscription drive and Moscow’s ongoing “aerial onslaught” point “more to a campaign of attrition” than any plan to “stop” the fighting.
As for the ceasefire, it’s “frayed to the point of collapse”, said Radio Free Europe. Kyiv and Moscow are both continuing daily attacks, “utilising scores of drones and powerful missiles”.
What next?
This is “the critical year for the war in Ukraine, and this is the critical moment”, said John Healey, the UK’s defence secretary this morning. He was addressing members of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, an alliance of about 50 countries that have supported Kyiv, at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels. “We stand with you in the fight and we stand with you in the peace,” Healey told Ukraine.
The “whole idea” of the Western allies’ latest moves is to put Ukraine in the “strongest possible position” and so “pile the pressure” on Putin to accelerate the “currently slow-moving” talks on a ceasefire, said Politico – “though that hasn’t worked out so far”.
