U.S. could block any attempts by Canada to pivot from F-35 jet deal: analysts

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As Canada looks to potentially find another fighter jet to replace the American F-35, it could run into problems with the U.S. vetoing any of its new choices, defence analysts warn.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has ordered a review of the country’s F-35 purchase in the wake of an increasingly hostile United States and threats by President Donald Trump to damage Canada’s economy.

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Carney confirmed March 17 that he had discussions with French and British government officials about whether those countries could build a fighter jet in Canada.

The Liberal government has committed $19 billion to purchase 88 F-35s from the U.S., but is only under contract for the first 16 planes.

The Liberals could consider purchases of Eurofighter jets, built by a consortium which includes Airbus, as well as the French-built Rafale. Another favoured aircraft is the Saab Gripen from Sweden. Saab was the runner-up in Canada’s fighter jet contest and had proposed building Gripens in Canada.

But, because all of these jets contain U.S.-built equipment, the Americans could block any potential sales to Canada, defence analysts say.

The Gripen engine, for instance, is American technology.

“The ability of the Americans to block (a sale) would be highest with the Gripen because of the engine,” said defence analyst Martin Shadwick, who is retired from teaching strategic studies at York University in Toronto. “Rafale would have the least American content.”

Alan Williams, the former chief of procurement at the Department of National Defence, said the U.S. had the ability to block sales of equipment with American technology and noted that Trump was trying to send a message to Canada by engaging in a trade war.

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Williams said the F-35 represented a strategic vulnerability for Canada since the U.S. has total control over software upgrades and spare parts on the aircraft. “I would not expect (Trump) to hold back software updates but it is a risk,” he added.

Williams said Carney was right to ask for a review of the F-35 purchase. But he doubted the prime minister would receive a proper analysis from the Royal Canadian Air Force or the Department of National Defence as officials from both organizations were highly supportive and promoted the F-35 acquisition.

Defence Minister Bill Blair’s press secretary, Laurent de Casanove, did not respond to repeated requests for comment. DND did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

When reached for comment, Saab officials did not say whether the U.S. could block a sale of Gripens to Canada because of the engine issue. But Simon Carroll, president of Saab Canada, noted in an email to the Ottawa Citizen that the company “remains prepared to support Canada’s defence readiness by air, sea and land.”

The first of Canada’s F-35s will be delivered to a U.S. military base in 2026 and then into Canada in 2028. Canada plans to operate the aircraft until 2060.

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Supporters of Canada’s F-35 purchase point to the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of contracts that Canadian companies have earned by supplying parts for the U.S. aircraft. That, in turn, has sustained or created Canadian aerospace jobs.

But on Feb. 28 the National Post reported that Trump had told Lockheed Martin he wanted those jobs back in the U.S. when the Canadian contracts came up for renewal.

The F-35 program has had a controversial history in Canada. The Liberal government originally committed funding to the development of the aircraft, but did not commit to purchasing the stealth fighter. As procurement chief, Williams oversaw the development initiative.

At a high-profile news conference in 2010, featuring then-defence minister Peter Mackay sitting in the cockpit of a F-35 mock-up, the Stephen Harper government announced it was purchasing the plane. But increasing costs and technical problems dogged the F-35 program. In a 2012 interview with CBC, Conservative MP Chris Alexander claimed the government had never said it would buy F-35s despite obvious evidence to the contrary.

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During the 2015 election campaign, Justin Trudeau vowed his government would never purchase the F-35. As prime minister, Trudeau continued to point out the Canadian military had no need for the F-35 and he blamed the Conservatives for agreeing to purchase a problem-plagued fighter jet.

But the Liberal government altered its usual procurement approach for the fighter jet purchase after the Trump administration threatened in 2019 to pull the F-35 from the Canadian competition. Usually, companies bidding on such large Canadian contracts are required to provide specific industrial and technological benefits, with dollar figures, that would be tied to the purchase of a particular piece of military equipment. That was changed for the fighter jet competition.

With the 2023 announcement, the Liberals not only committed to the acquisition, but also increased the number of F-35s to be bought to 88 from the 65 the Conservatives had wanted.

David Pugliese is an award-winning journalist covering Canadian Forces and military issues in Canada. To support his work, including exclusive content for subscribers only, sign up here: ottawacitizen.com/subscribe

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